Enterprise Lithuania adjusts export forecasts

The team of analysts of the Entrepreneurship and Export Development Agency Enterprise Lithuania worsened the forecast of Lithuanian exports for 2022 and 2023. It is forecasted that this year the export value of goods of Lithuanian origin will grow by 11.1 per cent, and the export of services – by 3.8 per cent.

Growth hampered by uncertainties

Faster export growth will be hampered by uncertainties surrounding war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and changes in commodity market prices.

“The whole development of Lithuanian business is marked by the fight against external obstacles, and this is natural, because the economy of a small country is highly dependent on the international environment. The current challenge posed by Russia’s aggressive invasion of a peaceful European state is met with a great deal of lessons learned and a sufficient pool of resilience. We are better prepared than some of the economies of the old continent, and that is our advantage. The war in Ukraine is another strong test, but the diversification of markets will contribute to the creation of an even safer Lithuania.

Aušrinė Armonaitė, Minister of Economy and Innovation.

According to Rasa Uždavinytė, the head of the Export Department of Enterprise Lithuania, the most important thing is to dynamically reorient the business, further expand the circle of foreign partners and the sales channel, and the state-focused export development assistance also serves this purpose.

“As in the time of the shock caused by the pandemic, business assistance in finding and establishing new business contacts, information events on new markets, training to strengthen business development competencies and opportunities to participate in international exhibitions and find new export or raw material channels remain relevant.”

Rasa Uždavinytė, the head of the Export Department of Enterprise Lithuania

Exports will grow, but at a slower pace

According to the analysts of Enterprise Lithuania, who conducted a review of export trends in 2021 and set export forecasts for the future, Lithuanian exports this year are slightly slower than expected, which is affected by the international geopolitical situation and other economic risks.

So far, we can only predict very carefully, because there are too many unknowns – it is unclear how long and the end of the war in Ukraine will last, we do not know how fast commodity prices will rise, and we have no doubt that the European Commission will adjust the official economic growth forecast. In this situation, we can maintain optimism due to the fact that the recovery of the entire Lithuanian economy after the pandemic was rapid, and last year’s export results surpassed the pre-pandemic year.

Jonė Kalendienė, Head of Research and Analysis at Entrepreneurial Lithuania.